9:10 pm - Sunday June 25, 2017

अधोपतन : क्या भारत अंतर्राष्ट्रीय मुद्राकोष से ऋण लेने जा रहा है : rediff

Air_IndiaUncleSam_2क्या कर दिया सरकार ने मेरे भारत का ?
अभी यूरोप को ऋण देने के लिए तत्पर भारत अब फिर १९९० की कगार पर आ पहुंचा है .चिदंबरम का चार दिन का वाशिंगटन प्रवास क्या एक नए ऋण की तैयारी थी. रेत पर बने ,ताश के महल कितना टिकते है ! हमारी प्रगति किसी ठोस उत्पादकता के आधार पर नहीं थी . वह तो एक मृग मरीचिका थी .आपके भ्रष्टाचार ,वोडा फोन पर पुराणी तारिख से टैक्स लगाना , जिन से रिश्वत ली थी उन्हीं उद्योगपतियों को अपनी जान बचने के लिए जेल डालना .कभी तो पापों का घड़ा भरना ही था. क्या खाद्यान्नों के भंडारण पर बैंकों का उधार खोलना राष्ट्रिय आवश्यकता थी? हमीं ने तो जान बुझ कर खाद्यान्नों की कीमत मैं आग लगायी. क्या एयर इंडिया के लिए इतने सारे वाई जहाज खरीदना जरूरी था.
अच्छी खासी चल रही एयर इंडिया को किसने डुबोया. क्या मनरेगा आवश्यक था या सिर्फ गिरती सर्कार की छवि को सुधरने के लिए लिया गया कदम था. विदेशी मुद्रा जेब मैं नहीं पर सोना का आयात बढ़ता गया.तेल के कीमतें आसमान को छू रही थीं तो आयात कम करते .
अब जब पुरे बिक गए तो चले १९९० की नीतियों को दोहराने और अन्तराष्ट्रीय मुद्राकोष से ऋण मांगने की तैयारी करने लगे.
जब बोये पेड़ बबूल के तो आम कहाँ से खाय ?

रेडिफ का लेख क्लिक कर पढ़ें

http://www.rediff.com/money/slide-show/slide-show-1-column-is-india-planning-to-take-a-loan-from-imf/20130729.htm#1

Finance Minister P Chidambaram was in Washington for four days early this month. His official fixtures showed that he was to have met a clutch of international investors, members of the House of Representatives of the US Congress, US Treasury Secretary Jacob Lew, US Exim Bank officials and Walmart representatives.

No finance minister will ever make his meetings with the IMF public even if he were to meet one of its representatives to explore options for a loan. But his presence in Washington at this time did evoke some interest back home.

Those who rule out the possibility of the Indian government exploring the options of an IMF loan at present point out that such a move would be politically suicidal for the ruling party.

Seeking an IMF loan now would be a public admission by the United Progressive Alliance government that it allowed the economy to deteriorate to a level where an external agency had to bail it out from a balance of payments crisis. Assembly elections in four major states are likely to be held in November and a general election would be held soon thereafter.

An admission by the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) government now that an IMF loan is a possibility could damage the electoral prospects of the Congress in the next few months.

So, even if the UPA government were discussing the options of an IMF loan now, it is extremely unlikely that any formal announcement to this effect would be made now.

IMF loan negotiations are held in utmost secrecy. Little was known to the Indian people before India signed a $5.5-billion loan from the IMF under its extended fund facility in 1981-82 to bail the economy out of a balance of payments crisis.

Barring a leaked report in The Hindu about the conditionality of the loan, the only disclosure the government of Indira Gandhi had made about that loan was after it was signed with the IMF.
Similarly, in July-September 1990, the V P Singh government had quietly drawn $660 million from the reserve tranche facility of the IMF to bolster India’s deteriorating balance of payments situation.

This became public only in July 1991. Even earlier, in January 1991, $1.02 billion was drawn from the IMF under its modified Compensatory and Contingency Financing Facility, followed by another $789 million as a first credit tranche under its three-month stand-by arrangement.

Remember that the three IMF loans were all negotiated and drawn by governments (one by the V P Singh government and two by the Chandrashekhar government) that at that time had politically grown weak and the country’s political environment had become uncertain with prospects of elections looming large.

Yet, they went ahead with the IMF loans as these funds were necessary to shore up the rapidly depleting foreign exchange reserves at that time.

The P V Narasimha Rao government that took charge in June 1991 signed a $2.3-billion loan with the IMF in October that year under a stand-by arrangement for a 20-month period.

So, can the UPA government go in for an IMF loan now?

Politically it can be a problem, but then IMF loan negotiations take several months to be completed.

It is, therefore, likely that the UPA government’s economic administrators may have begun exploring the options for an IMF loan as a precautionary move to ward off any further deterioration in the balance of payments situation.

In any case, there is no harm in starting the negotiations now, given the parlous state of India’s balance of payments. The negotiations would take several months and whichever government is formed after the elections can then take an appropriate call, without losing any time.

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