2:48 am - Wednesday July 17, 2019

क्या भारत के अफगानिस्तान में बुरे दिन आने वाले हैं : अमरीका, तालिबान व् पाकिस्तान के बदलते समीकरण

 

क्या भारत के अफगानिस्तान में बुरे दिन आने वाले हैं : अमरीका तालिबान व् पाकिस्तान के बदलते समीकरण

– Rajiv Upadhyay rp_RKU-263x300.jpg

अन्तराष्ट्रीय राजनीति किसी बरसाती धूप  की तरह ही होती है . कब सूरज निकल आये और कब बदली में छा जाये कुछ पता नहीं . अमरीका व् राष्ट्रपति ट्रम्प अमरीकी चुनाव से पहले अफगानिस्तान  से निकलना चाहते हैं .दस साल के कठिन प्रयासों के बाद भी अफगानिस्तानी सेना राष्ट्रीय सेना नहीं बन सकी और तालिबान से देश की रक्षा नहीं कर पायेगी . न तो वर्तमान राष्ट्रपति घनी  न ही पूर्व राष्ट्रपति करज़ई भारत के हितों की रक्षा कर सकते हैं .अफगान सेना जिरगा लोया की पसंद को राष्ट्रपति नहीं बनवा पायेगी .तालिबान अमरीकी सेनाओं को देश के बाहर चाहते हैं परन्तु इसके बदले में वह पश्चिमी हितों की रक्षा का आश्वासन दे देंगे . उनका पाकिस्तान से वैसा ही रिश्ता है जैसा पूर्व राष्ट्रपती करज़ई का भारत से था . इसलिए भारत के अफगान रिश्तों में गिरावट आना स्वाभाविक है .भारत ने अफ्घनिस्तान मैं बहुत पैसा लगाया है . उनके डैम , संसद , अस्पतालों . पॉवर सप्प्लाई  व् सड़कों को फिर से चालू किया है . अफगानिस्तान की आम जनता भारत के साथ है . पर आम जनता का आने वाली Buddha of Bamiyanसरकार पर कोई प्रभाव नहीं होगा .taliban alkaydaa

पाकिस्तान तो कंगाल है वह अफगानिस्तान को क्या देगा परन्तु चीन अब अफगानिस्तान के लिए खजाने खोल देगा और पाकिस्तान के साथ मिल जाएगा . चीन पहले तो सीपेक व् ग्वादर के लिए मध्य एशिया के देशों के लिए रास्ता मांगेगा जो उसे मिल जाएगा .भारत ने जो चाह्भार बंदरगाह का दाँव  खेला था वह अमरीकी इरानी लड़ाई में डूब गया . भारत द्वारा बनाई गयी चाह्भार बदरगाह को जोड़ने वाली सड़क पर भी तालिबानी कब्ज़ा हो जाएगा . यह स्थिति कोई अप्रत्याशित नहीं है . भारत भी तालिबान से बातचीत कर रहा था पर मुल्ला उम्र व् लादेन को शरण देने की कीमत तो पाकिस्तान को सूद समेत मिल ही जायेगी .इसका प्रारम्भ बलूच लिब्रेशन आर्मी को अमरीका द्वारा आतंकी संगठन घोषित कर के शुरू हो गयी है .उधर अमरीका व् पश्चिमी राष्ट्र अब भारत पाकिस्तान को दुबारा बराबर कहने लगेंगे . अल कायदा के नेता जवाहरी ने कश्मीर पर भारत को धमकी दे दी है . इस घटना क्रम से भारत की कश्मीर समस्या बढ़ जायेगी .उधर इमरान खान जुलाई में अमरीका जा रहें हैं और कुछ लेकर ही लौटेंगे .आई एएम् ऍफ़ पैकेज से तो कुछ अंतर नहीं पड़ता और क्या लायेंगे देखना होगा . अमरीका ने चीन का भी सहयोग के लिए धन्यवाद किया है .

सिर्फ भारत ही बदले समीकरणों से दूध में मक्खी बन गया है !

osama bin_laden_g-113399348इसमें कोई  आश्चर्य नहीं है. अन्तराष्ट्रीय संबंधों में परन्तु सदा चाँदनी  रात  तो नहीं रहती . अमावस्या भी तो आती है . राजनीती की इस नयी तालिबानी आंधी में पकिस्तान के मुल्ला ओमर व् बिन लादेन को संरक्षण देने के सब पाप धुल गए .हमारी भी गुट निरपेक्ष नीति ऐसे समय काम तो आ जाती है परन्तु  वास्तविक समस्या भारत की कमज़ोर अर्थव्यवस्था व् नए हथियार खरीदने का बहुत कम बजट है . हमारा मुकाबला चीन पाकिस्तान की जोड़ी से है . हमारा वियतनाम भी पाकिस्तान जैसा जोड़ीदार नहीं है . अमरीका से हमारे सम्बन्ध कोई बड़ी जरूरत पर आधारित नहीं हैं और जब चाहे अमरीका हमारी बांह मरोड़ देता है. यूरोप व् रूस भी हमारे मुकाबले चीन से कहीं ज्यादा व्यापार करते है . इसलिए चीन के विरुद्ध हम अकेले ही पड़ जाते हैं .

इसलिए दस प्रतिशत की वास्तविक  दर से आर्थिक प्रगति हमारी सुरक्षा की भी आवश्यकता है . सरकार को झूठे आंकड़ों की ओट को छोड़ वास्तविक आर्थिक व् औद्योगिक विकास पर ध्यान देना चाहिए .

चीन से ज्यादा आर्थिक प्रगति ही हमारी सुरक्षा की गारन्टी  है .

Trump’s wake up call for India – रीडिफ़

‘From the Indian perspective, Trump’s invitation to Imran Khan to visit the White House is a bitter pill to swallow,’ points out Ambassador M K Bhadrakumar.

Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi with United States President Donald John Trump meet ahead of the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019. Photograph: @MEAIndia/Twitter

IMAGE: Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi with United States President Donald John Trump meet ahead of the G20 leaders summit in Osaka, Japan, June 28, 2019. Photograph: @MEAIndia/Twitter

The announcement in Washington on Wednesday regarding Pakistan Prime Minister Imran Khan’s visit to the United States cannot but be noted as a watershed event in regional politics.

At its most obvious level, the announcement coincides with the news coming out of Doha that the US and Taliban have resolved their differences over the four issues that were discussed through the seven rounds of talks in the Qatari capital — counterterrorism assurances, troop withdrawal, a ceasefire and intra-Afghan talks.

The Taliban’s chief negotiator Abbas Stanekzai told reporters in Doha on Monday, ‘We do not have any disagreement with Americans. Only there is the draft (agreement) which needs to be finalised. When it is finalised, we will share it with media.’

The White House announcement on Wednesday signals that a draft peace agreement between the US and the Taliban regarding US troop withdrawal and ceasefire is indeed ready for signature in the near future.

Alongside, the rival Afghan sides have also come up, following the so-called intra-Afghan dialogue in Doha on Monday sponsored by Qatar and Germany and under the watchful eyes of American diplomats, with a ‘road map for peace’ which aims ‘to reduce civilian casualties to zero’.

The US Special Representative for Afghanistan Reconciliation Zalmay Khalilzad has left Doha for China en route to Washington. Clearly, Beijing played a key role in the peace talks and the visit of Taliban leader Mullah Baradar to Beijing last month probably became the turning point in the negotiations in Doha.

This underscores once again the growing complexity of the US-China ‘rivalry’, which we in India blithely tend to overlook at times.

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Within six weeks of the Pentagon’s Indo-Pacific Strategy Report, making wholesome condemnation of China as a ‘revisionist power’ that the US is determined to counter on all fronts (in league with partners such as India), we have the curious gesture by Khalilzad to show appreciation to Beijing as an indispensable interlocutor for bringing the ‘endless war’ in Afghanistan to an end and to create conditions for the orderly withdrawal of US (and NATO) troops from that region.

Indeed, it is an incredible spectacle of how priorities shift in the US diplomacy when its self-interests are involved.

The heart of the matter is that President Trump’s invitation to Imran Khan goes way beyond a show of token gratitude for Pakistan’s cooperation in making the peace agreement with the Taliban.

Actually, Pakistan has not made any major concessions on its Afghan agenda. It simply facilitated the peace talks by leveraging its influence on the Taliban.

The Pakistani objective of restoring the Taliban to mainstream Afghan politics — highly likely with a lead role — and creating ‘strategic depth’ vis-a-vis India is very much intact.

Make no mistake, the leitmotif of the US-Pakistani rapprochement is that a new regional security paradigm is taking shape. Pakistan is being assigned a pivotal role to ensure that Afghanistan will never again be a ‘lab of terrorists’ (to use Trump’s words) threatening the Western world.

Pakistan is hugely experienced in handling its relations with the US and it will, of course, make sure that the US reciprocates — politically, financially, militarily.

If Trump had praised India as the ‘critical part’ of his unfolding Afghan strategy in August 2017, he is now replacing India with Pakistan in a most curious reversal of roles in South Asia’s regional security paradigm.

The White House announcement says explicitly that Imran Khan’s visit will ‘focus on strengthening cooperation between the United States and Pakistan to bring peace, stability, and economic prosperity to a region that has seen far too much conflict.’

It goes on to say that the US is meeting Pakistan’s longstanding demand for a wide-ranging, full-bodied relationship on par with US-Indian relations, ‘including counterterrorism, defense, energy, and trade.’

More importantly, in what can only be regarded as a veiled reference to the Kashmir issue and India-Pakistan tensions, the White House says the US will keep in sight ‘the goal of creating the conditions for a peaceful South Asia and an enduring partnership between our two countries.’

To be sure, Washington has marginalised India and ignored its sensitivities regarding the Afghan situation by choreographing the post-war scenario in Afghanistan almost exclusively with Pakistan (and China.)

And, yet, the India-US relationship was supposed to be one between ‘natural allies’ and was described until fairly recently as the ‘defining partnership’ of the 21st century.

From the Indian perspective, therefore, Trump’s invitation to Imran Khan to visit the White House is a bitter pill to swallow.

At best, it can put a brave face on the colossal setback to its regional policies during the past five years, which stubbornly refused to engage Pakistan in dialogue, strove to ‘isolate’ Pakistan as a State sponsoring terrorism, regarded Afghanistan primarily as a proxy war with Pakistan, refused to regard Taliban as an Afghan entity and fantasised an Indian-American convergence over regional security in regard of Afghanistan.

Clearly, when it comes to Afghanistan, Pakistan is Washington’s preferred partner, while India’s assigned role will be to serve as a doormat for the US’s containment policies against China, bandied about as its ‘Indo-Pacific strategy’.

The Indian foreign policy elites owe an explanation as to how this bizarre situation came about. The entrenched Sinophobia in the Indian mindset has clouded rational thinking.

The emerging regional security scenario thoroughly exposes the myths shrouding India’s ‘defining partnership’ with the US and scatters the delusional thinking that what is quintessentially a transactional relationship rests on the bedrock of ‘shared values’ and ‘common concerns’ between the two countries.

It was never really an equal relationship based on respect and trust or transparency — leave alone strategic convergence.

In retrospect, Prime Minister Narendra Damodardas Modi’s initiative through the last year-and-a -half to build a warm personal relationship with President Vladimir Putin with a view to revive the India-Russia relationship that was systematically atrophied as a matter of Indian policy during the past decade (with an unspoken agenda to give more ballast to the budding military ties with the US), and to expand and deepen the strategic communication with China following the Wuhan summit with President Xi Jinping with a view to improve India-China relations came not a day too soon.

That providential transition — for which wide acceptance is still lacking within our strategic community — significantly enhances India’s capacity today to adjust to the emerging US-Pakistani entente over post-war Afghanistan.

Ambassador M K BHADRAKUMAR

 

 

 

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