5:56 am - Wednesday August 12, 2020

US Taliban Peace Deal : Understanding The Destruction of Afghanistan : अब तेरा क्या होगा कालिया ?

peace deal doha 29 th feb 2020US Taliban Peace Deal : Understanding The Destruction of Afghanistan : अब तेरा क्या होगा कालिया ?

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USA and Talibans have signed a peace deal in Doha, Qatar,  on 29 th February by which USA will withdraw its forces in 14 months . This dawn of common sense took nineteen yeas ,trillions of dollars of wasteful expenditure and a devastated Afghanistan with destroyed infrastructure and millions of refugees. West suffered  almost 3500  deaths of western alliance soldiers and one lakh Afghani citizens were killed. It was a totally avoidable war but for the over confident Pakistani clergy induced religious bigotry in Afghan leadership.

After the 11 th September 2001 attack on World Trade Centre   , a justifiably angry and hurt USA had only demanded that Afghanistan should handover Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of the attack, to USA and stop the Al Qaeda and terrorist activities in Afghanistan . It was a very reasonable demand in the exceptional circumstances  which even seasoned rulers like Saddam or Gaddafi would have agreed . It is learnt that a delegation of clergies from Pakistan went and met Mullah Omer and prevailed upon him to refuse handing over of शरणागत  refugee Osama  Bin Laden till USA gives proof of his guilt and direct  involvement . It was a very unreasonable demand . America had no patience  and launched a full fledged aerial attack on Afghanistan on 7th October  . With in a month and a half  of massive bombing  Mullah Omar resigned and he and Osama Bin Laden reportedly took shelter in Pakistan anonymously although some believe Omar remained in Afghanistan in disguise .

If Osama Bin Laden was caught or killed, the war would have ended earlier . But Pakistan  played a double game . On one hand it took large money from Americans in the name of coalition support funds and on the other hand offered safomar and ladene sanctuary and shelter to Mullah Omar and Osama Bin Laden in Pakistan far away from American searching eyes. Americans could not have gone back without some tangible results like Osama Bin Laden’s body or arrest.

Almost 1.4  lakh  soldiers of Nato and forty countries  joined the war in Afghanistan as unbelievable coordination and planning involved in WTC attack mortified every one .Afghanistan hilly terrain was not suitable for direct military operation and regular armies cannot match committed  guirrilla warriors . Americans installed a democratic government and remained in small number in Kabul.The democratic government, dominated by ex Norhern Alliance non Pashtun s,  lost people’s trust due to corruption and Afghan army was not able to win support of Pashtuns . Talibans , with Pakistan’s clandestine support,  remerged in five years as a powerful group controlling vast areas in Afghanistan .

Before Americans, Afghanistan had fought Soviets for ten  years from 1979 to 1989. After departure of Soviets Afghanistan plunged in brutal civil war . Taliban had ruled for five years. The long war totally destroyed the infrastructure and economy . US  tried developing Afghanistan but failed to get public support as they were perceived as an occupying army .

Americans just wants to get out honorably and will not return even if old repressive Taliban rule is imposed after fourteen months .

After Afghans, India is the most affected country by American withdrawal . India has spent billions of dollars in Afghanistan as developmental aid . It ended the landlocked Afghan’s dependence on Pakistan by opening the Chabhar port in Iran and making the connecting road. It is developing a rail connection also . It revived the infrastructure , helped in education , health , agriculture , irrigation etc and is viewed very positively by Afghan people while Pakistan is almost hated . Iran and Russia had also backed the current ruling government of ex Northern Alliance .

Talibans are wiser now and know that Afghanistan cannot survive without aid . India is the only major country not thanked by Taliban for peace deal. It will not like to lose Indian assistance by pushing  out India particularly because Russia and Iran are still capable of reviving the Northern alliance if pressed against wall. China with its money and Pakistani manpower can de stablise Afghanistan but may not do so immediately . It will adopt await and watch attitude .Afghanistan’s mineral resources cannot be used unless it is totally peaceful . So Iran , Russia , China and India will all promote peace and suppress terrorism. The only country which can destablise is Pakistan but Pakistan has no money to give to Afghanistan . Afghanistan will open the Gwadar route to central Asia to satisfy China and Pakistan and may not pursue land route with India as vigorously. It will not oppose Turkmenistan gas pipeline as it will bring revenue provided India buys the gas .

Pakistan has been accusing Indian consulates of actively training terrorists against Pakistan more as a counter balancing exercise . Talibans may close bordering consulates under Pakistani pressure . But even Mullah Omar had not recognized Durand Line as international border and ultimately the border dispute could re emerge again . India had pushed out Pakistan in exports which Pakistan will like to reverse but does not have money at present .

Moreover Taliban are not yet in government . Their ability to win a free and fair nation wide election has not been tested . Even their victory in Jirga Loya is not yet certain . The present elected government will not just resign and handover power . Talibans came to power by gun earlier by Saudi money and Pakistani training and military support .They are not good negotiators to arrive at a agreeable power sharing arrangement . Pakistanis and ISI under watchful eyes of FATF and may not be able to promote terror easily and Saudis are not averse to the present government . So Talibans are still quite far from the government . If they agree for a vice president post for the time being and bid their time suits the nation but they are not used to waiting particularly after defeating another super power .

zaheer sha with kennedyIn the long run it suits every one if Afghanistan can return to its neutrality as in  Zahir Shah days except Pakistan . If  Pakistan revives sending terrorists in India , a terror tolerant regime in Afghanistan will need different solutions. India may have to devise a new strategy to counter the Pakistani terror otherwise Afghanistan is not of much interest to India and the world .India can leave it for Pakistanis to befriend but without China.

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