4:06 am - Monday July 13, 2020

चीन की सीना जोरी हमारी रक्षा व्यवस्था की बजट मैं हमेशा उपेक्षा का परिणाम है : Our Low Defence Expenditure Is The Reason For Chinese High Handedness

चीन की सीना जोरी हमारी रक्षा व्यवस्था की बजट मैं हमेशा उपेक्षा का परिणाम है : Our Low Defence Expenditure Is The Reason For Chinese High Handedness

Rajiv Upadhyay rp_RKU-150x150.jpg

China has once again made us an international spectacle by occupying vast areas in Laddakh sector . World knows that with out its support we cannot effectively defend our territory . But western support has its price . During Kargil war , USA permitted France and Israel to give us laser bombs but made us agree to opening FDI in insurance sector .Even China during Kargil war  had advanced its LAC to our disadvantage though it kept quiet and did not support Pakistan militarily . Busy with Kargil war,  we possibly had to ignore it. A few  years back a Chinese General visiting India estimated us as a weak nation lacking will to fight . It resulted in China advancing and  confronting us at Doklam by occupying the plateau and after a standoff for many months the matter was resolved . While China has enormously   strengthened its defence infrastructure on Tibet side so much now that PLA can reach it armored unit with tanks very easily while we neglected road construction for many years not only due to fund shortage but even on environment grounds! Our principle defence of NE was in keeping the area so un approachable that Chinese army cannot advance deep in our territory . As any experienced army man will tell,  it is possibly the worst way of defending our territory. Today defending Tawang in Arunachal against a determined Chinese attack is a difficult proposition . We were banking on gaining territory in Laddakh as a counter measure but now even that may not be possible . Our ammunition reserves too are for a ten day war which is inadequate .

China has increased its naval presence in Indian ocean. Apart from a large fleet of seventy  submarines and anti aircraft carrier Dongfeng missiles , it can outnumber us in war ships. Along with Pakistan it can block our oil supplies from its bases in Gwadar and Djibouti . We have too few submarines to threaten Chinese supplies through Malacca straits and also China has huge strategic oil reserves of four hundred million barrels compared to  our strategic oil reserves of 32 million barrels, which  are only sufficient for ten days .

Our weakness in Airforce is well known . Having failed to finalise our MMRCA deal for last fifteen years and babudom dilly dallying on Tejas  ,with depleting squadrons we are fast approaching parity with even Pakistan ! . In 1971 during Bangladesh war , we had almost 1: 2.3 superiority in aircrafts. Chinese Airforce is of course is too huge although we may have some technical advantage in quality . China fired hundred ballastic missiles in just testing in 2019 and can possibly out number us by six  times in number of missiles . It can begin war by destroying our airports in north east by raining missiles after which we will be hard pressed to take our supplies to border areas in absence of adequate road network. Similarly it will try to neutralise our Andaman naval base by missiles early in war to protect its traffic through Malacca straits.

How have we reached this sorry state even after our rout in 1962 war ?

As demonstrated by our MMRCA aircraft deal fiasco of not finalising purchase in fifteen years and our not having enough ammunition at the time of Parliament and Mumbai attack , our defence is a story of constant budgetary neglect and ignorant babus ruining our purchases by bureaucratic disposition like buying cheapest but unsuitable Bofor guns  ammunition from Russia ! Abhinandan’s capture was due to Pakistanis cutting our communication link . We did not have the much needed secure computer link as some Babu thought that India should develop it locally rather than buying it from Israel at just 600 crore rupees . After our ignoble performance against Pakistani counter air attack  it was bought in a matter of days . Our superior Sukhois were rendered sitting ducks as their old BVR missiles could not reach Pakistani F 16s . We did not upgrade our missiles though we were offered longer range missiles long back as some babu thought that sixty kilometers was adequate range for BVRs. Instead of being ashamed we were celebrating that our Sukhoi was able to save itself from superior AMRAM missiles .

Through out our long history of military defeats,  we were let down by underestimating our enemies and falsely believing that the war will not take place . From Prithvi Raj Chauhan to Ibrahim Lodhi and Nawab Siraj ud daula of Bengal, we always had a bigger and brave army yet we lost due to false complacence . We are repeating the same mistake by underestimating the capability and resolve of our enemies . Our hope and banking  on shady international alliances is frightening and record shaking of hands with foreign dignitaries is highly questionable. An America , which is so eager to get out of Afghanistan with some face saving , will never enter a new war with China . Europe is totally disunited and cannot defend itself even from Russia without US support . France and UK combined once lost a war on Suez canal  and will not dream of fighting China for Taiwan , India , Japan or Hong Kong . After a year of Corona and US Elections , China will re emerge as an economic and military giant . Germany’s Merkel  is already breaking rank from USA by hobnobbing with China on trade . It depends heavily  on China for its automobile sector . Others in Europe  will only follow Germany unless USA can morally lead again . President Trump is capable but not a visionary and unifying leader and is too  America centric . He is no Churchill . In an Indo China war, every one will only cheer India from ring side  and happily sell their arms at huge profit .No one will fight for us. China can even choke us economically as our pharma , mobile phone, solar power, steel and other sectors are heavily dependent on China . The ‘Atmnirbharta ‘call is well timed but will only become a likely rhetoric as our International Solar Alliance due to inadequate funding ,advance preparations and determined follow up till end . ‘Atmnirbharta’ is really a ten year project, if taken seriously and will increase the cost of Indian products if done routinely. But West too is drifting away from free trade and it may be the only option in the post corona world.

Our economy , which is the real strength of a nation for a sustained war, is in shambles due to long decline . Babus do not understand macroeconomics and cannot deliver growth. For the last eight  years, our real growth by old methods of calculations, is barely five percent per year and we are constantly managing statistical figures to claim higher growth . ‘Make in India’ for defence was a non starter . FDI in defence needs assured long term orders . Our ordering mechanism is whimsical and Babu dominated. A new factory say for aircrafts or submarines will need assured orders for ten years which our rule bound babus will never give ! PMO forced such order placement on Railways for GE locomotives. But scared of bad reputation due to Bofor gun and HDW submarine scandal ,  it will not do it for defence . So just as ‘Make in India ‘,  huge FDI in defence will be a non starter unless we are bold and pragmatic enough . Destruction of our real national strength of ISRO, DRDO, HAL, BEL etc , just to favour private sector will be a national disaster,  although imminent and inevitable in the present set up . We must remember our Ambassador / Fiat car story of what can go wrong in a non competitive private sector . Our courts too interfere in economic matters on PILs without protecting investors. If we want to build private sector in defence it must complement HAL  and BEL type PSUs and not replace them by making them unviable and then condemning and maligning them in Air India style . Both can grow together if we have proven achievers  who understand and have knowledge and experience of PSU and Private sector working at top, not the convenient, sycophant but  rule master Babus.

The constant neglect of defence due to popular electoral pressures on budget will ultimately have serious consequences . Doklam and Laddakh are only a begining,  worse is yet to come . The inevitable Collapse of American military might in Asia will throw up new and much bigger challenges endangering our very survival. We are hoodwinking the nation by quoting higher pension and salary expenditure of our armed forces as increased defence expenditure . We have to increase our new defence equipment procurement expenditure to thirty billion dollars a year and another ten billion dollars in research . This is the minimum expenditure required to have a credible defence so that no one can foist a Doklam , Laddakh or Mumbai attack on us at their sweet will without fearing reprisal. Similarly our defence expenditure excluding pensions must be 2.5 percent of our GDP . New recruitment in BSF, CISF, RPF, CRPF, ITBP ,ASSAM RIFLES must stop and only retired soldiers should be posted to reduce pension expenditure. A trained retired soldier is a national asset and should be used .

The PM must take the nation, including opposition, together in stopping this freebee race for electoral benefits and make Indian economy competitive enough to increase  our exports to a trillion dollars and economic growth to old eight percent ( new 9.5%) for ensuring our survival with respect in the post corona world order. This can only be achieved a  consensus building beyond electoral gains and calculations and letting real experts manage economy and defence.

Is India ready for the ‘New Post Corona World Order’ , sadly Not Yet !


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One Response to “चीन की सीना जोरी हमारी रक्षा व्यवस्था की बजट मैं हमेशा उपेक्षा का परिणाम है : Our Low Defence Expenditure Is The Reason For Chinese High Handedness”

  1. June 7, 2020 at 11:25 am #

    Wrong. China, Pakistan and North Korea are rogue countries. They just cannot resist creating trouble for all. Any amount of defence expenditure will not deter them.
    Your logic is absolutely illogical.

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